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Tomato Time: Which Model is it Anyway?
We had a frost on May 9. This is just one day before the mean of the posterior predictive distribution for my model! Fortunately, based on my model I had not planted my tomatoes yet. It is now May 20, and we have passed the 94% highest density interval (HDI) for my model’s posterior predictive…
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Modeling to Avoid Frostbitten Tomatoes
Every spring I struggle to know when it will finally be safe to plant my tomatoes outside. I look at the projected last frost date—conventional wisdom suggests it’s around May 10 in my area with a range from May 4 to May 31—and obsessively review the 10-day forecasts. Nonetheless, I often have to cover my…
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Luck of the Draw: Euchre Night Part 3
To determine the role of luck in winning a Euchre tournament, I wanted to see how consistently good or bad a player’s hand is likely to be over the course of the number of hands dealt. What is the probability of the deal being so consistently good as to win a certain percentage of the…
