Tag: Modeling

We had a frost on May 9. This is just one day before the mean of the posterior predictive distribution for my model! Fortunately, based on my model I had not planted my tomatoes yet.  It is now May 20, and we have passed the 94% highest density interval (HDI) for my model’s posterior predictive…

Every spring I struggle to know when it will finally be safe to plant my tomatoes outside. I look at the projected last frost date—conventional wisdom suggests it’s around May 10 in my area with a range from May 4 to May 31—and obsessively review the 10-day forecasts. Nonetheless, I often have to cover my…