SNW Data Analysis

Category: Data Analysis

  • Tomato Time: Which Model is it Anyway?

    Tomato Time: Which Model is it Anyway?

    We had a frost on May 9. This is just one day before the mean of the posterior predictive distribution for my model! Fortunately, based on my model I had not planted my tomatoes yet.  It is now May 20, and we have passed the 94% highest density interval (HDI) for my model’s posterior predictive…

  • Modeling to Avoid Frostbitten Tomatoes

    Modeling to Avoid Frostbitten Tomatoes

    Every spring I struggle to know when it will finally be safe to plant my tomatoes outside. I look at the projected last frost date—conventional wisdom suggests it’s around May 10 in my area with a range from May 4 to May 31—and obsessively review the 10-day forecasts. Nonetheless, I often have to cover my…

  • Luck of the Draw: Euchre Night Part 3

    Luck of the Draw: Euchre Night Part 3

    To determine the role of luck in winning a Euchre tournament, I wanted to see how consistently good or bad a player’s hand is likely to be over the course of the number of hands dealt. What is the probability of the deal being so consistently good as to win a certain percentage of the…

  • The Power of a Partner: Euchre Night Part 2

    The Power of a Partner: Euchre Night Part 2

    If skill is important to a player’s Euchre score, the skill of the partner and opponents should be important.  Therefore, I would expect scores in games with a winning partner to be higher than average and with winning opponents to be lower than average.  I define a winning player as one whose average score is…

  • A Game of Skill? Euchre Night Part 1

    A Game of Skill? Euchre Night Part 1

    The author attends Euchre night and does statistical analysis to decide if Euchre is a game of skill or luck.